Azerbaijan’s support for Turkey may influence Israeli policy

Gokmen Kilicoglu

News.Az interviews Gokmen Kilicoglu, a researcher at Istanbul University.

The Israeli foreign minister said recently that he was preparing a number of retaliatory steps against Turkey. He said one step would be recognition of the "Armenian genocide" and support for the PKK.  What are the implications of steps for Israel?

Israel has a very strong lobby in different parts of the world, particularly in the United States. The use of this lobby can be effective in raising the question of the need to adopt a bill on the so-called "Armenian genocide". In addition, Israel, through rich and reputable Jews and non-Jewish people sympathetic to Israel in different parts of the world, could put Turkey in a difficult position. As you know, Israel is the largest producer of weapons. Besides, this country has a strong intelligence network worldwide, especially in the Middle East. Given these two factors, Israel could support terrorist organizations.
At various times different allegations have been made against Israel that the country supports terrorist organizations. In other words, such a threat by Israel is not new. In this case, there is an interesting situation, namely the acquisition of a sufficiently large volume of  Israeli weapons by Turkey to combat terror and protect their borders. Turkey may, therefore, face difficulties in weapons acquisition and, especially, there is already a challenge of maintaining and repairing the unmanned aircraft Turkey has bought from Israel.
Will Israel lose its friendship with Azerbaijan if it strengthens ties with Armenia in order to retaliate against Turkey?

Azerbaijan is an important country in the Caucasus region. In particular, its importance  in the world is increasing with the growth of its energy strength. As is known, Israel wants to develop relations with Azerbaijan and has taken important steps in this direction. At the same time, it is also known that at different times there have been problems in relations between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Israel will not miss the opportunity to take advantage of these problems. In other words, without affecting issues related to Karabakh but at the same time supporting efforts directed against Turkey and related to the so-called "genocide", Israel can signal to Azerbaijan that "our problems are not related to you".
Moreover, in the Azerbaijani media, there are supporters of full backing for Turkey in its strained relations with Israel and supporters of an Azerbaijani stance that looks out for its own interests.
By developing relations with Armenia, Israel will increase the efforts of Turkey and Azerbaijan to get even closer to each other.

Is it possible to say that by losing friendship with Turkey and Azerbaijan, Israel will be isolated from the whole Muslim world?
Israel seems to find it easier to establish relations with secular countries like Azerbaijan and Turkey than with other Islamic countries. Therefore, we can assume that the cooling of relations with these two countries will further increase tensions between Israel and the Islamic world.
However, given that the Arab world is far from a unified position on Israel and that there is a lack of clarity about the role of Israel in what's known as the "Arab Spring" and its position after these events, it is difficult to give a specific answer. From time to time we can see how Arab governments hostile to Israel behave. Through a variety of promises, or pumping into the heads of government representatives of the Arab countries that Turkey's leadership is a "threat", Israel will enter the path of establishing a new balance in the relationship of powers. So, the criticism of the policies of Prime Minister Erdogan made by the Muslim Brotherhood are signs of this fear. Israel will not miss the opportunity to make use of the situation for its benefit.

Can Azerbaijan mediate between Turkey and Israel?
At a time when Israel does not listen to US proposals, it is doubtful that the services of other mediators would help.

The United States, which relied on Israel in defining its interests in the region, and supported it in any situation, is trying to recommend that Israel avoid tensions with Turkey. However, Israel is refusing to disavow its position on an apology to Turkey for the killing of its citizens, who were supplying humanitarian aid to Gaza. Turkey is also determined in its position and says that it won’t yield until Israel apologizes. The understanding that the whole world is against Israel, as well as close ties with Turkey reduce the possibility that Azerbaijan can become an unbiased mediator. This will further raise distrust. Azerbaijan’s support for Turkey’s position may play an important role in view of the uncompromising position of Israel.

N.H.
News.Az